No Money in the Long Tail
So, Alex Iskold is a dude that gets it. Today he writes much the same thesis as formed the core of Unfashionably Late: That late entry into the blogosphere (or any other social media space) decreases one’s chances of getting noticed. In Alex’s case, he focuses on monetization, which I wasn’t concerned with. The fact is, that whatever one’s motivation for blogging (or facebooking or YouTubeing, etc.), the later one gets in the worse are one’s odds of success.
Alex poses a question: Is the long tail of the blogosphere solid? Or is it in danger of falling apart?
And I answer:
In Unfashionably Late, I liken the blogosphere to a multi-level marketing scheme. It always pays more if you get in early. Most MLMs eventually become very unattractive, because it’s easy to see the market is saturated.
But, “falling apart”? I don’t think so. Reasons:
- Many Markets: The blogosphere isn’t one MLM. It’s a multitude of them; 1 for every topic times 1 for every slant on the topic times 1 for every intended audience times…. (you get it.) Even if 30 MLM companies die this year, the MLM as a business model will stay healthy as long as there’s a single product category whose market isn’t fully saturated.
- Saturation Doesn’t Kill Markets: Even MLMs that have pretty well saturated their markets are still going concerns. (Amway & Shaklee come to mind.)
- Many Motivations: Even if it could be shown conclusively that there is no money to be made from a new blog, people will keep blogging because not all their motivations are monetary.
- All Is Never Lost: It can never be shown conclusively that there is no money to be made from a new blog. There are ways of succeeding even in a mature market (think of how Japan entered machine tools, farm equipment, etc.). Just as there are ways of breaking into Hollywood even though the odds are very long.
- Always Somebody Showing the Ass the Carrot: As with MLMs, there are those who make their money by selling the long tail, and they will continue to provide incentives (however bogus) to get people to live in the long tail.
What I fear most is that the quality of the blogosphere will continue to deteriorate, because eventually the long odds will deter anybody who’s smart enough to notice them.